Saving & Investing 20 Sept 2026

Is your savings account losing money? The real return arithmetic

A naira savings account can pay interest and still shrink. How to work out what your money is really earning, using figures Nigeria publishes every month.

Your bank pays you interest. Your balance goes up every quarter. Nothing about the statement suggests anything is wrong.

And yet the money buys less than it did. Not because anyone took it, and not because you spent it, but because two numbers are moving in opposite directions and only one of them appears on your statement.

This is how to work out the other one.

Nominal and real

The interest rate your bank quotes is a nominal rate. It tells you how many more naira you will have. It says nothing about what those naira will buy.

The number that decides that is inflation, and the gap between the two has a name:

> Real return = what you earn, minus what prices rose.

If your savings account pays 4% and prices rose 24% over the same year, you did not earn 4%. You lost about 20% of your purchasing power, while watching a balance that went up.

That is the whole trick, and it is why "I am saving" and "I am getting poorer" can both be true at once.

*(The tidy version, if you want it exact rather than close: real return = ((1 + nominal) ÷ (1 + inflation)) − 1. Subtracting is near enough at small numbers and drifts when inflation is high, which in Nigeria it is. Use the division form when the gap is wide.)*

The arithmetic on ₦1,000,000

Nigeria's headline inflation rate is 15.39%. That is the August 2026 NBS print, read via the CBN, checked on 20 September 2026. Every figure below is measured against it.

Take a round million, left alone for a year.

| | Pays you | After a year | What it buys, in today's money | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cash, not in a bank | 0% | ₦1,000,000 | about ₦866,600 | | A typical savings account | look it up, it is usually low single digits | | | | Something paying 12% | 12% | ₦1,120,000 | about ₦970,600 |

Fill the middle row in yourself, because that is the row that matters and only your bank knows it. Find the rate on your statement or in the app, and run it through the same arithmetic.

Two things fall out of that table.

Cash loses the full rate of inflation, every year. A million naira under the mattress buys about ₦866,600 worth of goods a year later. Nothing happened to it. Nothing needed to.

Even a good published rate does not get you level. A deposit paying 12% against 15.39% inflation is running about 3.4 percentage points behind, and on the exact arithmetic above that is a real return of about -2.9%. It loses more slowly, which is genuinely worth something, but it is not growing your money.

(Both numbers are correct and they measure different things. 3.4 is the gap between the two rates. 2.9 is what actually happens to your purchasing power, which is the division form rather than the subtraction. This is the drift the maths note warned about, and at Nigerian inflation levels it is already half a point.)

That is the honest framing, and it is the one Kampe's own engine uses: saving still beats not saving. It just is not growing your money in real terms.

Where these numbers come from, and how to check them yourself

None of this is proprietary. Nigeria publishes all of it:

  • Inflation comes from the National Bureau of Statistics, monthly, as the headline CPI figure.
  • The policy rate is the CBN's MPR, set by the Monetary Policy Committee.
  • Treasury bill rates are set at CBN auctions, roughly twice a month, and the stop rates are published each time.
  • Savings and money market rates come from the banks and fund managers themselves, and vary far more than the others.

Kampe reads the first three automatically and stores a source and a source URL against every reading, so any figure on the page can be traced back to who published it and when. That matters more than it sounds: a rate quoted without a date is not information.

One caveat that trips people up. The NBS rebased the CPI in 2025. A rebase changes what the index measures, not just what it reads, so a print from before it and a print from after it are two different measurements. Charts that join them smoothly can show a collapse or a spike that never happened. If you are comparing years, check which side of the rebase you are on.

What people usually do instead, and the honest trade-off in each

There is no version of this where one option is simply correct. Each buys you something and costs you something else.

Treasury bills. Government-issued, naira-denominated, fixed for a known term. Usually the cleanest answer to "beat the savings account without taking equity risk", and your money is locked until maturity. Still a naira asset: if the naira weakens, a T-bill does not protect you from that.

Money market funds. A managed pool of short-term instruments. More liquid than a bill, typically a day or a few to withdraw, at a slightly lower yield and a management fee. Rates are quoted net or gross depending on the manager, so check which.

FGN bonds. Longer, higher yields, and the price moves if you sell before maturity. Hold to maturity and that does not matter; sell early and it very much does.

Dollar assets. A different exposure rather than a better yield. They protect purchasing power against naira weakness and introduce their own rules, costs and tax treatment. Kampe has separate guides on domiciliary accounts, the FGN domestic dollar bond and Eurobonds.

Spending it on something that holds value. Sometimes the right answer, and rarely the one a finance article gives. A generator that stops you buying fuel at retail, a bulk purchase at a price that will not exist next quarter, a skill that raises what you charge. Inflation punishes idle money; it does not punish money converted into something useful.

What none of these are is a recommendation. Which one suits you depends on when you need the money back, and that is a question only you can answer.

The rule worth carrying

Before you leave money anywhere, ask two questions instead of one.

  1. What does it pay?
  2. What is inflation?

The second question is the one nobody at the bank will ask for you, and it is the one that decides whether you are saving or slowly spending.

Where this leaves you

If your money is sitting somewhere paying less than inflation, you are not being careless. You are in the position almost every Nigerian saver is in, because the safe option and the sensible option have come apart and nothing on a bank statement tells you so.

The fix is not to panic into whatever yields most. It is to know the number. Once you can say what your money is really earning, every other decision gets easier, including the decision to leave it where it is.

Kampe tracks inflation, the policy rate and Treasury bill rates automatically and shows them against what you actually hold, so the comparison is sitting there rather than waiting for you to do the arithmetic. It never moves your money. It tells you what it is doing.

Next: how much of your salary is actually yours to spend, which is the same question asked of your income rather than your savings.

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Researched content, reviewed and published by Kampe — verify before you act on anything here. Kampe never moves your money.More guidesRadarTools